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Dr. Greg Carbone
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Dr. Greg Carbone’s research focuses on climate variability and change, and climate impacts. Much of his work has investigated the potential impacts of future climate change on agricultural production. This work has incorporated climate and crop simulation models, field sampling, and remote sensing to understand how environmental change may alter energy and water balance in agricultural environments. Dr. Carbone is also investigating methods to improve seasonal drought forecasting. By tailoring seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks, it is possible to assist the water resource and agricultural communities with drought preparations.
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Climate change impacts on agriculture
Some projections of 21st-century temperature and precipitation change
in the Southeast would cause dramatic losses to agriculture. The first
maps below show how soybean yield responds to two climate change
scenarios. When estimating the impact of future climate change on
crop yield, it is important to consider how plants may benefit from
increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and how farmers may adapt to
changing conditions. To this end, the final map shows two specific
adaptation strategies: planting fast-growing varieties early (blue
grids) or slow-maturing varieties late (green and red grids). Both
strategies significantly reduce crop losses.
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Drought forecasting
Because temperature and precipitation patterns may vary greatly
across South Carolina, it is necessary to tailor drought forecasts
for individual stations. Drought indices are used to declare specific
drought stages and to establish water-use restrictions. Below line
graphs show the predicted probability of moderate (yellow), severe
(orange), and extreme (red) drought stages for 2002. The box plots
below show the likelihood that water resource managers would face
water restrictions in the coming year. They depict the 10th, 25th,
50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of exceeding specific PDSI values
from resampled data. Predictions were made for 2002 on January 1 when
the PDSI was -3.05. As a reference, predicted PDSI values using
"another year like last year" are also provided.
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